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Preseason Poll August 17 2000
Introduction to my site
Week 1 Games
Week 2 Aug 31 and Sept 2
Week 3 Games
Week 4 Games
Week 4 Results
Week 5 Picks
Week 5 Results
Week 6 College Football Picks
Week 6 Results
Week 7 Picks
Week 8
WEEK 9 picks
Week 10 games
week 11
Rivalry Week
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| Picks for Week #6 |
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| It's the last day in September ..... 11 GAMES, 3 Locks, 2 Reverses, 2 Over/Under-AND THE GAME OF THE WEEK (dedicated to Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity, Inc.) |
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| I've barely had time to revel in my joy or bask in my glory...which is probably a good thing because sooner or later I will lay an egg one of these weeks. But I really feel as though I'm getting a feel for this game picking and I feel as though there is no reason why I shouldn't go .500 each week. Watch...as soon as I've said that, the Gambling Gods of the Universe have frown down on me and will bestow upon me a 2-10 week to bring me back to reality. Anyway, I will do my best not to let that happen with sound confident choices based upon research, knowledge, trends, history, and gut instinct. I will get all of my games up as soon as possible. Time..........Favorite..........Spread..........Underdog..........My Pick (Thursday, Sept. 28) 7:30.........west virginia..........6.............TEMPLE.......westvirg (rev) 12:30.......purdue ............13...........PENN ST..........purdue 12:00.......texas christian......27.5.........NAVY............tcu 1:00........central florida.........6..........EASTERN MICHIGAN.....EMU (lock) 12:00......TEXAS.........19.5..............oklahoma state.......TEXAS 3:30.......OREGON.......3.5...........washington...........washington (lock) 3:30....virginia tech........14..........BOSTON COLLEGE.....v.tech (rev) 5:05.......utah.............12.5...............UTAH ST.............utah 7:00.......INDIANA............14.5...........iowa.............INDIANA 7:00.......MARSHALL........43.5............buffalo............MARSHALL 9:05......tulsa..............3.5...............HAWAII..............tulsa OVER/UNDER Illinois at Minnesota...OVER 50 Kansas St. at Colorado...under 46 Georgia at Arkansas...OVER 45.5 GAME OF THE WEEK Gotta go BIG TEN ... Wisconson at Michigan ... Many preseason publications ranked both of these teams in the top five. Suspensions robbed the Badgers of early season continuity and team cohesiveness, resulting in a loss. An unfortunate trip to southern California and a loss to UCLA has adversely affected Michigan's title run. Both schools are hoping for late season losses by Florida St and Nebraska (and to a lesser extent Florida) in order to get back into the national title picture. But basically this game effectively knocks the loser out of any hope for the National title. It should be a very interesting game to watch! EXPLAINING MY LOCKS ==  I like Eastern Michigan getting 6 points at home for several reasons. EMU is capable of scoring points as they showed last weekend at Temple where they scored 40. The CF defense is alright against inferior teams, but EMU is at least a peer. In games against quality offenses CF gave up 21 and 35 (G.Tech and Akron), so I figure the EMU offense should be able to muster anywhere between 24-30 points against CF. The trick is going to be for EMU's defense to find a way to stop CF from scoring which has scored no less than 17 in any game and succeeded in scoring 52 at home last weekend against William & Mary. But the EMU defense already has two things working in its favor. The Cenral Florida starting quarterback, Vic Penn, is out so they have to turn to a freshman to run the "O". Also, the game is being played in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The last weather reports I researched (Tuesday night) called for rain and cold temperatures in that region for Saturday. Not exactly the comforts of Orlando. I figure the weather will adversely affect Central Florida's offense moreso than Eastern Michigan's who should be fairly used to playing in poor weather. If EMU can manage 23 points, it will take 30 for CF to win, I don't see them scoring that many. I chickened out of picking Washington two weeks ago when they traveled to Colorado to play the Buffalos. I've liked the Huskies for many years and too often they have let me down, not lived up to their potential. Well, I watched most of the Colorado game and I was thoroughly impressed. I don't want to miss out of them this time around. Several reasons why I like Washington here...Rick Neuheisal is a hell of a coach, one of the best in college football. That alone counts for quite a bit in favor of Washington. He won't get psyched out by a big game (just look at his return victory at Colorado), and he will ensure that his team is prepared. His teams know how to win all types of games, just look at their results this season. They can blow out an inferior team (beat Idaho at home 44-20); they can beat highly ranked, talent-laden teams at home (beat Miami,Fla 34-29); they can win tough, hard-nosed, scratch & claw, victories on the road (Colorado 17-14). The Huskies know how to be prepared for their opponant and win the game based upon the style of play involved. Can I also mention that Neuheisal and his squad have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and the Huskies are 7-1 in the 1990's coming off bye weeks (losing only at Ohio St in the mid-90's...the Oregon Ducks are no mid-90's Ohio St Buckeye team). Speaking of the home team, I am impressed with Oregon a little bit, but they are not as good a team as they were last year. They do have a 17 home winning streak, so I have to take that into consideration. But they are also coming off an extremely big and emotionally draining victory last week. It will be difficult for that intensity to rise to that level again. Beating UCLA had juice because it's still big bad UCLA and because of what the Bruins have accomplished this year. The Washington game is almost an after-thought dispite Washington's own successes. A let-down on behalf of the Ducks would not surprise me at all, in fact I'm expecting one. I think Washington wins by a TD. Did I mention that Washington's QB Marques Tuiasosopo is not even getting a sniff for the Heisman and I'm sure he wants to put on a good show so his name, no matter how difficult it is to say, will also be mentioned for the decorated award. I will go with a third lock again this week. I almost think it's unfair to pick this game, and clearly Vegas is trying to make it a even as possible by creating a 43.5 point spread. And even though I said I need to lay off the big spreads because teams simply aren't running up scores anymore, I can't let this one pass. I am fairly certain Marshall will cover the 43.5 they are giving up at home against the Buffalo Bulls. I am making this pick for several reasons. Reason #1...The game is on the road for Buffalo. So far Buffalo has shown us two different teams this season, the one at home plays fairly competitive ball (losing to UConn 24-20 and WINNING against Bowling Green 20-17), but on the road Buffalo may as well be a high school team. They have gotten completely demolished when on the road. Reason #2...Buffalo's defense on the road. Here are the results of Buff's defense on the road. They gave up 63 to Syracuse and 59 to a bad Rutgers team. Neither opponant is an offensive giant. Reason #3...Marshall's offensive system knows how to rack up points against inferior defenses, and it isn't shy to run up the scores either. Marshall scored 63 in their first game against The Old Sisters of the Blind and Poor. But they also scored 24 on the road against a solid Michigan St. team. Admittedly they had a tough time against UNC's stingy defense, only scoring 15 (also on the road). Reason #4...Marshall should be dying to get back on their home field to play. The last two games, both tough, hard-to-swallow losses were on the road (MSU, UNC). Surely they are dying to play in friendly territories and get back on the winning track. Explaining my other picks - - I was making a homer pick by going with Temple at home over West Virginia. If Temple were to ever have a successful year, this is it, and they must get this win on Thursday. I hope and pray that they do win this game...but then it got reversed (but I still hope Temple wins, I'll take the loss here for a win there). The other game that was reversed was the last game I added to the board, BC versus VTech. It's always dangerous to bet against the Hokies because they are so capable of putting up so many points so quickly. But BC is always a tough team at home, the weather is probably going to be crappy, so I was willing to go with the Eagles plus two touchdowns at home. That got reversed and now I have to pull for Virginia Tech (which I really don't mind since I like Vick). For some reason my random drawings for reverses seem to find the Big East games. This is the second time Big East teams were the majority in my reversal games. As for the other games, TCU is on the road at Navy. They are giving up 27.5. After the Frogs demolish the Midshipmen Vegas will finally have to raise the line for TCU games to over 30. But until they do, I will not take a second thought about picking TCU to cover. In three games Navy has scored a TOTAL of 26 points and given up an AVERAGE of 35 (17, 40, 48). Let me say that again. In three games Navy opponants have averaged 9 points more than Navy has scored total all season. Can we say 55-10? The Texas 19.5 spread at home over Oklahoma St makes me a little nervous because it takes the Longhorns at least one full quarter before they wake up and start stomping people. I'm not saying that OSU is a threat to beat Texas (particularly because OSU's offense is terrible-I don't want to hear about the 36 they scored against Tulsa in week 1); I'm just saying it makes me nervous because before Texas wakes up they could be down 13-0 or 14-3 halfway thru the second quarter. That will make covering the spread very difficult. If Texas gets going and on the board quickly then we are looking at a 42-14 game. I am banking on the fact that this is a league game that Texas will take it seriously from the opening kick-off. Speaking of Tulsa, they are off the main land visiting Hawaii. The Rainbows are terrible, having lost at home to Portland St. 44-20 and lost on the road to UTEP by over 50 (I think). Tulsa, meanwhile, has begun to put together a nice little season, losing by only 10 to a Big 12 team (OklaSt) and beating Louisiana Tech and league rival Rice. The Hurricanes should improve to 3-1 with a win on the road at Hawaii and they should do it in impressive fashion. Tulsa's favored by 3.5. They should win by at least 10. I have to go back to bet against Penn St. Until PSU truly shows some heart (as well as some offense) I will continue to pick against them (or unless the line gets too big). Playing at home or on the road makes no difference for the Nittney Lions, they are equally bad in both places. Not even halfway through the season and the defense is exhausted. They are getting no more rest this weekend against Drew Brees and Purdue who is favored to win on the road by 13. Purdue's defense is not necessarily their forte, but they are capable of holding their own and keeping an opponant at bay. Even with a fair offense, Penn St would probably only score 24. This team will be lucky to get to 17. Expect Purdue to score at least 30. I see a 30-10 score. Staying in the Big 10...Antwaan Randle El of Indiana loves an audience. Expect him to put on a clinic for the home crowd in Indiana's Big 10 home opener. I know the Hossiers' defense sucks, but so does the Iowa offense (I don't think they've scored more than 2 TDs in any of their 4 games). The Hawkeyes will be able to scrap together two touchdowns at least against the Indy defense, but the Hoosier offense should run it up big time, especially since Iowa will be starting a freshman corner back. Indiana has scored 38, 34, 42 points. We will get close to the same total here. Lastly, a battle of Utah. The Utes are giving 12.5 points on the road to the Utah St. Aggies. My first gut reaction to this game was to take Utah St. At home, getting almost two touchdowns. Utah has been terrible all year (from the scores I remembered), and generally interstate rival games like this are usually close becasue of the emotion and energy involved. Well, after doing some research my head overruled my heart. Utah is 0-4 and desperate to get a victory. The key word here is DESPERATE! They know that Utah State is not a good team and this is a victory they can and must have in order to turn around their season. Utah's offense has been confusingly bad both on the road and at home. Impressively they were able to manage 21 points on the road against a tough California Golden Bear defense. But right about now the home/away thing almost doesn't matter for them. They need to get the offense untracked and get a win, and they will do anything and everything to win and win comfortably. Meanwhile, Utah State's defense is just what Utah needs. They gave up 38 points to Texas Tech and 44 versus Arizona St. I have a feeling this game might get ugly as Utah takes five weeks of frustration out on the Aggies and go home with their first win, 48-16. |
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